Dave Massey looks ahead to a fascinating card at Cheltenham on Friday and he's opposing one of the card's pin-ups with his very own stablemate.
NRS 465.088 states that the max penalty for a felony gambling conviction is a 1-6 year prison sentence and $10,000 fine. Discussed in sections 465.070 to 465.085, these punishments are reserved for serious offenses like cheating in casino games, point shaving (sports betting), and dealers/managers working with players to cheat.
Recommended bets, Friday November 13
1.5pts win On The Slopes in 1.50 Cheltenham at 10/3 (minimum price 3/1)
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- 5.150 Devices prohibited under NRS 465.075; exceptions. 5.160 Surveillance systems. 5.170 Programs to address problem gambling. 5.180 Operation of an inter-casino linked system. 5.190 Aggregate payout limits for gambling games. 5.200 Licensing and operation of a gaming salon.
1pt win Paint The Dream in 2.25 Cheltenham at 25/1 (minimum price 16/1)
1pt e.w. Vino Royale in 3.00 Cheltenham at 16/1 (minimum price 12/1)
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparenttipping record
Slopes to have ‘em on the ropes - 1.50 Cheltenham
A really competitive handicap, but we (Rory Delargy and myself) both looked at the race independently and came to the conclusion that On The Slopes ought to be favourite for this, so at the current prices rates a bet.
Progressive throughout last year, his third in the Timeform Novices' Chase, when beaten by Simply The Betts and Imperial Aura, is a very strong piece of handicap form, and it was no surprise he was able to win a couple of competitive handicaps at Kempton off the back of it.
Where we do slightly disagree is over the merit of his fifth here last time out. Rory still has concerns that the final hill might just be finding him out, but I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt at present, and am of the opinion he needed the run and no more than that. We'll know more after this, but he remains an exciting prospect for the season as things stand.
Can't gloss over the price - 2.25 Cheltenham
Another race we both looked at before our usual cheery morning chat, and we both are of the opinion that the prices look wrong. It's not quite Eric Morecambe 'all the right horses, but not necessarily in the right order' territory, but the four ought to be closer in the betting than they are.
We don't think there's much between the four at all at the weights, and that means we have to back the one we think is most out of line. That's Paint The Dream, who we would have nearer 8/1 than 18s on his Dipper second, and that's not his only good effort either.
Far from disgraced behind Grand Sancy at Chepstow, he traded odds-on in running at Stratford last time before succumbing to the progressive Happygolucky in the closing stages.
There's enough there, getting 8lb off Southfield Stone and 5lb from Protektorat, to make you believe he's got chances of upsetting the applecart. Getting him out in front and into a rhythm is going to be key, as there's a chance all four might want to go forward, but if Connor Brace can, then it's very much game on.
Vino Royale - 3.00 Cheltenham
Easysland looks by far the likeliest winner of the Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap, but we suspect that Tiger Roll may be some way off his peak, despite having had a pipe-opener on the Flat recently. Given they dominate the market, that means there's some scope for an each-way bet.
One who appeals at the prices is the 2017 winner Kingswell Theatre who needs fast ground, and never had conditions to suit last year, so it would be dangerous to assume he's regressed to the degree his handicap mark would suggest.
Kingswell Theatre actually started favourite for this race last year despite the soft ground, and with conditions more suitable this time around, I think early quotes of 33/1 are too big, even if he's only playing for a place in realistic terms. Tiger Roll won't be knocked about with bigger targets in the spring, and Potters Corner is a mudlark with no experience of the Cross-Country discipline.
The other horse who makes plenty of appeal at the prices is the favourite's stable-companion Vino Royale, who has a similar profile to the one Easysland brought here last year, as a five-year-old who has switched early to Cross-Country events, and who is very hard for the handicapper to get a handle on at this stage.
Unlike Easysland, however, whose form is all on very soft ground, Vino Royale has shown his best form on a lively surface, and has two wins to his name on good to firm ground.
There's a genuine chance that this youngster has the ability to win in receipt of so much weight, and that sways the verdict in his favour. It's worth remembering that Emmanuel Clayeux won this with his supposed second string last year, and David Cottin is surely not simply bringing Vino Royale over to keep his odds-on favourite company.
Polish up his jumping - 3.35 Cheltenham
It's easy to argue that Polish is a bit overpriced on his 5¾l third to Streets Of Doyen here last time out, a remarkable effort when you consider how many hurdles he met wrong and made mistakes at.
That's form that would put him in the firing line here, but his hurdling has to be a worry. If they have done some intensive schooling with him and it improves, he can be given a chance at a double figure price here, but for us, he doesn't quite make the cut for a bet today.
King can rule - 4.05 Cheltenham
Standing in the paddock for the Champion Bumper last year, I saw plenty of racy, athletic types but the one I decided I wanted for the future was One True King, a really solid, scopey sort that I'm sure will do even better again over fences. It's therefore pleasing to see that he's already starting to get his act together over hurdles after just a few starts, and after his C&D effort when second to another potentially well-handicapped sort in Tegerek, I see no reason to desert him here.
For a big horse, his hurdling technique has been very sharp. That was evident when he scored form the front at Uttoxeter two starts ago and again last time, when along with Tegerek, he pulled well clear of the rest, the form backed up by the speed figure.
After a quiet October by his own standards, it would appear the Twiston-Davies yard are finding some form, with three winners and three placed from his last 10, and that increases confidence that One True King can again run his race under conditions that suit. There may be one or two plotted up for this, which is a minor worry, but it's hard to envisage him out of the frame if in the same form as last time, and he looks solid each way.
Sadly, since the time of writing, the price has gone somewhat, and we'd want a minimum of 13/2 if we were backing it each-way, especially with most of the firms going five places and 1/5th of the odds.
Posted at 1800 on 12/11/20
Responsible gambling
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.
Get the Timeform verdict for each contender for the rescheduled 2020 Peterborough Chase at Cheltenham in our runner-by-runner guide.
1 - BUN DORAN - Tom George/James Bowen
Useful-looking gelding: winning hurdler: very smart handicap chaser: won Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton (by 1½ lengths from Duc des Genievres) in 2019/20: off 8 months, shaped as if better for run when down the field in Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter last time, close up until early in straight: stays 2½m: acts on heavy going: tried in tongue tie: front runner/races prominently.
A change of tactics works brilliantly for Bun Doran, as he lands the Ladbrokes Desert Orchid Chase at @kemptonparkrace for Tom George and Jonathan Burke.
Fine round of jumping and a great performance! 👏 pic.twitter.com/3YJS2fK7Zh
2 - TOP NOTCH - Nicky Henderson/Daryl Jacob
Compact gelding: useful hurdler nowadays: won minor event at Aintree (by neck from Roksana) in 2019/20: very smart chaser nowadays: won Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon (by ¾ length from Kauto Riko) same season: 11/10, not in same form when 8¼ lengths third of 5 to Frodon in Silviniaco Conti Chase at Kempton final start, no extra after not fluent 2 out: stays 3m: acts on heavy going: in tongue tie last 2 starts (has had breathing operation since latest): likeable sort.
It's a second win for the plucky Top Notch in the Fitzdares Peterborough Chase under @Dazjacob10, taking the prize home to @sevenbarrowspic.twitter.com/OLTh1QD12P
— Huntingdon Racecourse (@Huntingdon_Race) December 8, 2019Nrs Minor Gambling
3 - MISTER FISHER - Nicky Henderson/Nico de Boinville
Nrs Minor Gambling Rules
Sturdy gelding: winning hurdler: very smart form over fences: won novice at Cheltenham and Lightning Novices' Chase at Doncaster (by length from Al Dancer) in 2019/20: best effort when 4¼ lengths fourth of 12 to Samcro in Golden Miller Novices' Chase at former course: off 8 months, 11/2, pulled up in Paddy Power Gold Cup won by Coole Cody at Cheltenham last time: at least as good at 2m as 2½m: acts on soft going.
A terrific race! Mister Fisher makes it two from three over fences for @sevenbarrows as he takes the Grade 2 Lightning Novices' Chase at @DoncasterRaces under @james_bowen_... pic.twitter.com/nBnLDRU3BK
— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) January 25, 20204 - CLONDAW CASTLE - Tom George/Tom Scudamore
Well-made gelding: winning hurdler: smart handicap chaser: 11/2, better than ever when won 10-runner event at Newbury last time by 2¼ lengths from Gala Ball, travelling well and challenging when left in front last: stays 2½m: acts on soft and good to firm going.
👑 King of the Castle
Clondaw Castle was a good second in the Old Roan last time out & goes one better in this £30,000 prize for @tomgeorgeracing & @johnnyburke2 at @NewburyRacingpic.twitter.com/3u9ghTNny6
5 - DOLOS - Paul Nicholls/Harry Cobden
Good-topped gelding: winning hurdler: very smart handicap chaser: won at Kempton and Sandown (by ½ length from First Flow) in 2019/20: off 8 months and had breathing operation, 12/1, creditable 9½ lengths fourth of 13 to Rouge Vif at Cheltenham last time: stays 19f: acts on soft going: wears tongue tie.
6 - FANION D'ESTRUVAL - Venetia Williams/Charlie Deutsch
Medium-sized gelding: fair form over hurdles: won 4-y-o event at Compiegne in early-2019/20: smart form over fences: completed hat-trick in 4-y-o events at Toulouse and Auteuil, and novice handicap at Newbury (impressive) later in season: off 11 months, 5/1, shaped encouragingly when 2¼ lengths second of 9 to Magic Saint in handicap at Cheltenham last time, tanking along and headed when mistake 2 out: left Guillaume Macaire after third (2019/20) start: stays 19f: acts on soft going: open to further improvement as a chaser.
Kingswell Theatre actually started favourite for this race last year despite the soft ground, and with conditions more suitable this time around, I think early quotes of 33/1 are too big, even if he's only playing for a place in realistic terms. Tiger Roll won't be knocked about with bigger targets in the spring, and Potters Corner is a mudlark with no experience of the Cross-Country discipline.
The other horse who makes plenty of appeal at the prices is the favourite's stable-companion Vino Royale, who has a similar profile to the one Easysland brought here last year, as a five-year-old who has switched early to Cross-Country events, and who is very hard for the handicapper to get a handle on at this stage.
Unlike Easysland, however, whose form is all on very soft ground, Vino Royale has shown his best form on a lively surface, and has two wins to his name on good to firm ground.
There's a genuine chance that this youngster has the ability to win in receipt of so much weight, and that sways the verdict in his favour. It's worth remembering that Emmanuel Clayeux won this with his supposed second string last year, and David Cottin is surely not simply bringing Vino Royale over to keep his odds-on favourite company.
Polish up his jumping - 3.35 Cheltenham
It's easy to argue that Polish is a bit overpriced on his 5¾l third to Streets Of Doyen here last time out, a remarkable effort when you consider how many hurdles he met wrong and made mistakes at.
That's form that would put him in the firing line here, but his hurdling has to be a worry. If they have done some intensive schooling with him and it improves, he can be given a chance at a double figure price here, but for us, he doesn't quite make the cut for a bet today.
King can rule - 4.05 Cheltenham
Standing in the paddock for the Champion Bumper last year, I saw plenty of racy, athletic types but the one I decided I wanted for the future was One True King, a really solid, scopey sort that I'm sure will do even better again over fences. It's therefore pleasing to see that he's already starting to get his act together over hurdles after just a few starts, and after his C&D effort when second to another potentially well-handicapped sort in Tegerek, I see no reason to desert him here.
For a big horse, his hurdling technique has been very sharp. That was evident when he scored form the front at Uttoxeter two starts ago and again last time, when along with Tegerek, he pulled well clear of the rest, the form backed up by the speed figure.
After a quiet October by his own standards, it would appear the Twiston-Davies yard are finding some form, with three winners and three placed from his last 10, and that increases confidence that One True King can again run his race under conditions that suit. There may be one or two plotted up for this, which is a minor worry, but it's hard to envisage him out of the frame if in the same form as last time, and he looks solid each way.
Sadly, since the time of writing, the price has gone somewhat, and we'd want a minimum of 13/2 if we were backing it each-way, especially with most of the firms going five places and 1/5th of the odds.
Posted at 1800 on 12/11/20
Responsible gambling
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.
Get the Timeform verdict for each contender for the rescheduled 2020 Peterborough Chase at Cheltenham in our runner-by-runner guide.
1 - BUN DORAN - Tom George/James Bowen
Useful-looking gelding: winning hurdler: very smart handicap chaser: won Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton (by 1½ lengths from Duc des Genievres) in 2019/20: off 8 months, shaped as if better for run when down the field in Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter last time, close up until early in straight: stays 2½m: acts on heavy going: tried in tongue tie: front runner/races prominently.
A change of tactics works brilliantly for Bun Doran, as he lands the Ladbrokes Desert Orchid Chase at @kemptonparkrace for Tom George and Jonathan Burke.
Fine round of jumping and a great performance! 👏 pic.twitter.com/3YJS2fK7Zh
2 - TOP NOTCH - Nicky Henderson/Daryl Jacob
Compact gelding: useful hurdler nowadays: won minor event at Aintree (by neck from Roksana) in 2019/20: very smart chaser nowadays: won Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon (by ¾ length from Kauto Riko) same season: 11/10, not in same form when 8¼ lengths third of 5 to Frodon in Silviniaco Conti Chase at Kempton final start, no extra after not fluent 2 out: stays 3m: acts on heavy going: in tongue tie last 2 starts (has had breathing operation since latest): likeable sort.
It's a second win for the plucky Top Notch in the Fitzdares Peterborough Chase under @Dazjacob10, taking the prize home to @sevenbarrowspic.twitter.com/OLTh1QD12P
— Huntingdon Racecourse (@Huntingdon_Race) December 8, 2019Nrs Minor Gambling
3 - MISTER FISHER - Nicky Henderson/Nico de Boinville
Nrs Minor Gambling Rules
Sturdy gelding: winning hurdler: very smart form over fences: won novice at Cheltenham and Lightning Novices' Chase at Doncaster (by length from Al Dancer) in 2019/20: best effort when 4¼ lengths fourth of 12 to Samcro in Golden Miller Novices' Chase at former course: off 8 months, 11/2, pulled up in Paddy Power Gold Cup won by Coole Cody at Cheltenham last time: at least as good at 2m as 2½m: acts on soft going.
A terrific race! Mister Fisher makes it two from three over fences for @sevenbarrows as he takes the Grade 2 Lightning Novices' Chase at @DoncasterRaces under @james_bowen_... pic.twitter.com/nBnLDRU3BK
— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) January 25, 20204 - CLONDAW CASTLE - Tom George/Tom Scudamore
Well-made gelding: winning hurdler: smart handicap chaser: 11/2, better than ever when won 10-runner event at Newbury last time by 2¼ lengths from Gala Ball, travelling well and challenging when left in front last: stays 2½m: acts on soft and good to firm going.
👑 King of the Castle
Clondaw Castle was a good second in the Old Roan last time out & goes one better in this £30,000 prize for @tomgeorgeracing & @johnnyburke2 at @NewburyRacingpic.twitter.com/3u9ghTNny6
5 - DOLOS - Paul Nicholls/Harry Cobden
Good-topped gelding: winning hurdler: very smart handicap chaser: won at Kempton and Sandown (by ½ length from First Flow) in 2019/20: off 8 months and had breathing operation, 12/1, creditable 9½ lengths fourth of 13 to Rouge Vif at Cheltenham last time: stays 19f: acts on soft going: wears tongue tie.
6 - FANION D'ESTRUVAL - Venetia Williams/Charlie Deutsch
Medium-sized gelding: fair form over hurdles: won 4-y-o event at Compiegne in early-2019/20: smart form over fences: completed hat-trick in 4-y-o events at Toulouse and Auteuil, and novice handicap at Newbury (impressive) later in season: off 11 months, 5/1, shaped encouragingly when 2¼ lengths second of 9 to Magic Saint in handicap at Cheltenham last time, tanking along and headed when mistake 2 out: left Guillaume Macaire after third (2019/20) start: stays 19f: acts on soft going: open to further improvement as a chaser.
23 winners from 61 runners for @PFNicholls in the past fortnight 😲
The 11-times champion trainer continues in red-hot form as Magic Saint appreciates the step back down to two miles to get back to winning ways @CheltenhamRaces under @Bryan_Carver_ 👏 pic.twitter.com/RFEtAE3UQ1
7 - GLEN FORSA - Mick Channon/David Bass
Medium-sized gelding: lightly-raced hurdler: smart chaser: good effort when 2¾ lengths third of 12 to Oldgrangewood in handicap at Newbury in 2019/20: off 11 months, 9/1, tailed off when fell heavily 2 out in Haldon Gold Cup won by Greaneteen at Exeter last time: effective from 2m-3m: acts on heavy going.
8 - KALASHNIKOV - Amy Murphy/Jack Quinlan
Good-topped gelding: smart form over hurdles: off 10 months and had breathing operation, 22/1, shaped encouragingly when 13¼ lengths seventh of 17 to Main Fact in Betfair Stayers' Handicap Hurdle at Haydock last time, unable to sustain effort after threatening briefly 2 out: very smart chaser: good effort when nose second of 12 to Oldgrangewood in handicap at Newbury in 2019/20: stays 2½m: acts on heavy going: tried in cheekpieces.
An incredible finish! Oldgrangewood flies home to beat Kalashnikov on the line in the Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Handicap Chase 😱#LWC2019pic.twitter.com/HL3lrihkFW
— Newbury Racecourse (@NewburyRacing) November 29, 2019Timeform Analyst's Verdict
A very competitive renewal of this Grade 2, rerouted from Huntingdon. FANION D'ESTRUVAL has a bit to find with a few of these on form, but he made a bright start to the season when runner-up in a strong handicap here and this low-mileage 5-y-o may well improve now upped in trip. Top Notch is respected in his bid for a third victory in this race, but Kalashnikov and Dolos rate the main dangers.
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